The draw is overrated, but what should U.S. fans root for?

Posted by Creaven on December 3, 2009 under USMNT, United States, World Cup | 3 Comments to Read

At about 12:o3 p.m. EST on Friday, someone on ESPN (probably Alexi Lalas or John Harkes) will give the following monologue:

“This is the day we’ve been waiting for. Trying to make predictions before the draw is foolish because no one knows who’s playing who. It’s all about matchups! Depending on the group, the U.S. could be a strong quarterfinal candidate or it might be a candidate to leave South Africa without a point. This is so exciting! Finally we’re going to know what the U.S. chances are at the 2010 World Cup.”

This, ladies and gentleman, is bullshit.

The World Cup draw is exciting, but unless something really strange happens we already know the U.S. will either be the third or fourth best team in their group. If someone just broke into your house while reading this, put a gun to your head, and said, “Will the U.S. get out of their group at the 2010 World Cup? If you’re right you live, if you’re wrong you die.” You could say, without even knowing the groups, the U.S. won’t advance to the Round of 16 and feel somewhat confident you’ll live.

Why? For one, the U.S. has been decimated by injuries. Charlie Davies won’t play and Oguchi Onyewu, Maurice Edu and Jermaine Jones remain question marks. Onyewu is the critical player. With Onyewu, the U.S. is a respectable national team that can pull off an upset; without Onyewu the U.S. is one of the bottom six teams at the World Cup.

The second reason is the draw has too many land mines. The U.S. could hit the jackpot and get South Africa but the U.S. could still be placed with teams like Portugal and Ghana. If that scenario happened (which would be fantastic) the U.S. would still be the third best team in the group. I’m not a mathematician, but it’s quite unlikely even the biggest U.S. homer will consider the U.S. the second best team in its group after Friday’s draw.

(Note to commentators: Unless the U.S. is clearly the worse team in the group, do not say the U.S. is in a “Group of Death.” True, if the U.S. is stuck with Brazil, Denmark and Uruguay, the U.S. is in a terrible group but it’s only a “Group of Death” if all four teams are worried about advancing. There’s a 70 percent chance Alexi Lalas will call the U.S.’s group the “Group of Death.”)

That’s the bad news; time to make this column more optimistic. Just because the U.S. will probably be facing a terribly difficult situation, doesn’t mean we can’t root for an easy path to the Second Round. So when you’re at work Friday trying to watch the draw without your boss noticing, this is what you should root for:

1. South Africa! South Africa! South Africa! — There’s a 12.5 percent chance the U.S. could draw the host country and it would be a huge break. The eight teams in Pot 1 are made up of the top seven ranked teams in the world and South Africa — ranked 85th. The South Africans looked mediocre at best at the Confederations Cup last summer and it’s hard to imagine it being in the World Cup if it weren’t the host. That said, a host country has never missed the Second Round and if the U.S. played South Africa in the opening match of the tournament, South Africa would most likely be the favorite. Still, we want South Africa!

2. No Ivory Coast! Yes Algeria! — Most likely the team placed in the U.S.’s group from Pot 3 will get a, “Well, that’s not too bad” response. Ivory Coast is the exception. Could you imagine Carlos Bocanegra marking Didier Drogba? It would be such a massacre the United Nations would have to get involved. Not just Drogba, but the Ivory Coast has a solid squad throughout its roster (there’s a reason why a lot of people are picking them as their sleeper). The best case scenario is Algeria, which is coming off an impressive victory over Egypt but has more holes in its roster than the U.S.

The other six teams are a toss up to me. I’ve watched most of them play a couple times (Chile impresses me) but I think the U.S. could easily hold its own against any of them. Cameroon (which I haven’t seen play) might be the weakest of the bunch, but I wouldn’t be jumping for joy to play against Samuel Eto’o. 

3. No France, Portugal or Denmark — Pot 4 will determine if the U.S. is in a hard group or a borderline impossible group. France might be struggling, but they still have as much talent as anyone in the tournament. Portugal has the second best player in the world and has a lot of pace and talent throughout the team. Some people might think getting Denmark might not be the worse thing in the world, but the Danes were fantastic in qualifying and dismantled a weak U.S. team a couple weeks ago. The best case scenario for the U.S. in Pot 4 is getting one of the four S’s: Slovakia, Serbia, Slovenia (which would be best) or Switzerland (which would be second best). Greece is nothing to fear either.

If two of the three above break the U.S.’s way, it will be in a decent shape. The U.S. probably won’t win the South Africa lottery and it probably won’t get stuck with the Ivory Coast, so it comes down to Pot 4 and missing France, Portugal and Denmark.

Anyway, what’s important for the U.S. right now is getting healthy (and staying healthy), having at least one out of no where player emerge (the 2010 Charlie Davies) and building confidence going into next summer.