World Cup Draw: United States in the “Group of Luck”

Posted by Creaven on December 4, 2009 under England, USMNT, United States, World Cup | 15 Comments to Read

This is how lucky the United States got Friday.

After the U.S. was drawn in Group C with England, if I could have handpicked a country from Pot 3 and Pot 4 I would have selected Algeria and Slovenia (if you don’t believe me, I worte it yesterday). For the U.S. to actually draw both those teams there was a 1/64 (1.5 percent) chance. It was the exact same odds a poker player has of hitting a runner-runner straight in Texas Holdem in an internet casino. In other words, the U.S. (and England too for that matter) hit the jackpot.

I’m not an expert on Algeria and Slovenia (to say the least) but I know this: neither team was dominate in qualifying; neither team has a player better than Landon Donovan; only Slovenia has been to a World Cup recently (Slovenia lost all three games in 2002; Algeria hasn’t even qualified for the African Cup of Nations since 2002); neither team is coached by a world-class manager; neither team has a player currently playing in the UEFA Champions League (neither does the U.S.); neither team is ranked in the top 25 in the latest FIFA rankings (Algeria 28th, Slovenia 33rd).

It’s fair to say the U.S. is the second best team in its group; a statement I thought would be almost impossible to make before the draw was held. Still, U.S. fans need to keep their optimism tempered.

The U.S. might be the favorite to finish second, but I’m not sure its a better than a 50 percent favorite. Think of it this way, the U.S. is up against Algeria AND Slovenia for the second spot. Is it more likely one of those countries finishes above the U.S., or is more likely the U.S. will finish above both Algeria and Slovenia. At the very least, it’s a close call.

Also, the U.S. has to face England in its first match and though Alexi Lalas and John Harkes will spend the next six month trying to convince you otherwise, the U.S. is heavy underdogs and will probably lose; like when you’re playing blackjack and your hand has a high percentage of going bust. So all the pressure will be on the U.S. to win two consecutive matches to advance to the second round — not easy.

Lastly, in recent history the U.S. has been the favorite in only two World Cup matches. In the U.S.’s second match of the 1998 World Cup it faced underdog Iran and lost 2-1; in the the U.S.’s final group match of the 2002 World Cup the U.S. met Poland — the Poles lost their first two matches — and the States laid an egg, losing 3-1. Being the favorite can be difficult when you’re always the underdog and it’s fair to say the U.S. will be favored against Algeria and Slovenia. That said, you always prefer to play a team worse than yours (yes, that last sentence completely killed my “being the favorite is bad” argument.)

A lot can happen in the next six months but if the U.S. can get the luck on the field that it got today, the 2010 World Cup will be a memorable one for the Americans.

Notes…

Facing England — There’s literally dozens of different angles to take on the fallout of the U.S. playing England in the first round, but here are a couple that come to mind:

1. Even the most pessimistic U.S. fans will at some point in the next six moths talk themselves into the U.S. getting a result against England. I know I will,  but when I do I’ll try to remember this: A) England’s best striker, Wayne Rooney, has scored 10 goals in the Premiership this season (which is as hard as hitting several casino bonuses); the U.S.’s best striker, Jozy Altidore, has scored 0 goals in the Premiership this season. B) Fabio Capello coaches England; Bob Bradley coaches the U.S.

2. ESPN is going to promote this match with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind.

3. Sticking with ESPN, the World Wide Leader hired Martin Tyler (whose English and is the best english-speaking soccer play-by-play guy in the world) as it’s lead announcer for the World Cup. So, the U.S.-England match will be broadcasted by an Englishman to an American audience. I guarantee this is going to cause a hurricane of controversy and I hope ESPN stays strong and keeps Tyler for the match. Going from Tyler to J.P. Dellacamera is like going from John Terry to Carlos Bocanegra.

4. How will the American players be treated in England in the next six months? I don’t think home supporters will turn on their own players, but Americans should brace themselves for some abuse when they go on the road.

5. The 1950 match between the two teams will be brought up 9,243,741,802 times.

6. How great would it be if the U.S. won? It would make the Spain victory look miniscule.

The Group of Death — Of course Group G (Brazil, North Korea, Ivory Coast and Portugal) is the group everyone is talking about. I think Brazil is considerably better than the Ivory Coast and Portugal but the fight for second will be interesting. It might come down to who beat North Korea by more goals. (Note: I was so disappointed when I found out North Korea was in the same Pot at the U.S. I so wanted the two countries to meet; that would be something.)

ESPN draw coverage — Wasn’t terrible. There was no chemistry between Bob Levy, Alexi Lalas, Steve McManaman and Efan Ekoku, but they probably just all met each other. Levy is a pro and I’m happy he’s anchoring the coverage.

It’s getting old tearing apart Lalas and Harkes but someone has to speak out. It’s so uncomfortable watching them. It’s like going to an elementary school play and one of the kids can’t remember his or her line, you just feel bad for them. Lalas has always dislike against England, but him acting like this England team is terribly overrated is simply being uninformed. Harkes was even worse. He looked straight into the camera and with as serious a face as he could manage, said, “I think it’s going to be a draw.” You think it’s going to be a draw? One team is full of world-class players with a world-class coach and the other team is the U.S. It’s O.K. to say, “the U.S. has a chance for a draw,” or even, “if the U.S. plays really well, catches England on a bad day and gets a little luck, the U.S. could win,” but saying a draw is the likely outcome is crazy.

The interviews with Jeremy Schapp were solid (who knew Javier Agurie spoke such great English) and the highlight of the three-hour program was Levy’s interview with Tyler. Tyler is so lucid and professional you can’t get enough of him. There’s no way ESPN will make Harkes his color guy, right? Please someone convince me ESPN won’t do that to us.

Charlize Theron — Someone told her to go up there an act naturally, but it didn’t work. All her little comments made the whole draw process awkward. I thought Theron could literally do anything and it would be watchable — I was wrong.